In 2023, the digital advertising industry predicted that changes in cookies, CTV, AI, video and streaming would transform the industry landscape. But the thing about predictions is that you never know if you’re making an accurate call—especially in an industry as dynamic as digital advertising.

As we head into 2024, it’s interesting to look back and see which of these forecasts came to pass and what the implications are for the year ahead.

Prediction: Marketers will prepare for the end of Google’s third-party cookies by starting to gather and leverage first-party data to enable ad personalization.

Did it happen? Not as much as we thought.

The experimentation we expected to see in preparation for a cookieless future fell short, with 73% of marketers still feeling unprepared for deprecation. Where experimentation did happen, it was conducted mainly by ad tech platforms, with a focus on solving specific, isolated use cases rather than challenges at scale. Moreover, a first-party data strategy was not fully embraced by brands in lower footprint verticals, such as fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and consumer packaged goods (CPG).

Notably, publishers have done a better job of preparing their businesses for the cookie apocalypse. They were testing monetization strategies in cookieless browsers to build first-party data strategies that allow them to better understand their audiences and monetize traffic. Those marketers who are still unprepared will now have no choice but to rely on other players to solve the challenges posed by the approaching deadline, in turn giving publishers control.

The Rise Of Contextual Targeting
Prediction: The deprecation of third-party cookies and increasingly stringent privacy legislation will see wider adoption of contextual targeting solutions as context slowly replaces identifiers to find consumers in the right places at the right time.

Did it happen? Yes.

Over the past year, machine learning, natural language processing and data analysis have driven innovation in contextual targeting, resulting in a proliferation of contextual platforms. However, this transformation hasn’t been without its challenges—particularly with omnichannel contextual solutions not broadly available and a lack of USP differentiation.

Despite its strong growth, contextual targeting remains a niche tactic and is still seen by some as a purely upper-funnel activity. Unfortunately, marketers are continuing to rely on third-party data tied to cookies while it’s available. In 2024, they will be forced to experiment without third-party cookie solutions and realize that contextual targeting can be suitable for mid-funnel.

Strong Growth For Over-The-Top (OTT) And CTV
Prediction: The continued rise of streaming services with ad-supported lower tiers will see advertisers increasingly direct budgets to the space, making it the year of OTT.

Did it happen? Yes.

2023 was the year of OTT and CTV, thanks to consumers increasingly preferring streaming services over traditional television. The success of Netflix’s ad-supported tier inspired Disney+ and Amazon Prime Video to follow suit with similar offerings. Free ad-supported streaming television (FAST) also became popular with consumers under financial pressures. All of these factors led to a rise in spending across video formats.

Moving into 2024, I expect to see consumers continuing to access their favorite content through an ever-growing variety of channels and platforms, resulting in new dynamic ad inventory which will attract further spend.

Video Advertising Outperforming The Rest
Prediction: Video advertising will rise as the preferred format, with increased content consumption on streaming services and social media platforms.

Did it happen? Yes.

Video formats are grabbing the attention of consumers, who are increasingly expecting their favorite brands to reach them through video. Thanks to CTV and walled gardens like YouTube, video remains one of the strongest areas of growth in advertising.

Furthermore, the variety of platforms and devices users have access to, paired with popular video-based social channels such as TikTok, is providing further opportunities for brands to deliver engaging content to their target audiences. We’ve seen particular growth here within the retail sector as the rise of shoppable content has meant the path from awareness to purchase is shorter than ever.

This year witnessed some prominent shifts and advancements in the industry, but most importantly, it set the stage for an even more impactful 2024. There are a few things we can expect with some certainty in the year ahead: The depreciation of Google’s third-party cookies will become a reality for every marketer with the phase-out beginning in January; video and streaming services will continue to prosper as marketing channels; and AI technologies will increasingly enhance businesses’ operations.

These developments will create both opportunities and challenges, so to stay ahead of the competition, brands will need to continually seek out and test new marketing innovations.