Google, Meta, ByteDance, Amazon and Alibaba expected to earn more than half the annual total

The global advertising industry will surpass $1tn in revenue for the first time this year, with Google, Meta, ByteDance, Amazon and Alibaba expected to earn more than half the total in a market dominated by the technology sector.

GroupM, the media agency owned by WPP, estimates that global advertising revenue will increase 9.5 per cent in 2024, more than it had expected at the mid-year point, despite tough economic conditions in larger, developed markets such as the US and UK. 

The group forecasts that the market will expand by a further 7.7 per cent in 2025, and that most of the growth will directly benefit the largest sellers of digital advertising in the US tech sector, rather than providers of marketing services such as advertising agencies.

GroupM has chosen to exclude US political advertising, citing its “skewing” effect on year-on-year comparisons. In 2024, US political ad revenue added $15.1bn to the total, close to a third more than in the 2020 presidential election year. 

In the report, GroupM said that “while the next several years are unlikely to have the same near-zero interest rates that further supported advertising growth following the financial crisis and through the pandemic, we do expect the further application of AI and automation . . . to more than offset that and drive further innovation”.

Digital advertising is forecast to account for 73 per cent of total revenue by the end of next year — growing at 12.4 per cent globally in 2024 and 10 per cent in 2025 — or 82 per cent when including revenue from streaming and digital newspapers and magazines.

Traditional advertising channels such as television, print and radio are suffering from the dominance of digital options. 

Globally, total print advertising revenue will decline 4.5 per cent in 2024 and a further 3 per cent in 2025, audio revenue will remain flat next year, while TV, including both linear and streaming, is forecast to grow just 2.4 per cent on a compound basis from 2024-29.

The US is the largest advertising market, forecast to be worth about $379bn in revenues in 2025, despite higher costs of borrowing and more cautious guidance from some retailers including electronics and home improvement stores.

The report warned that tariffs and a stronger dollar following the election of Donald Trump could have an impact on the market. “Both of these developments would likely further challenge consumer goods and luxury advertisers facing a period of more muted consumption.”

In China, total advertising revenue is expected to increase 13.5 per cent in 2024 to $204.5bn. In the UK, Europe’s largest advertising market at $53.2bn in 2024, this year’s growth is estimated at 8.3 per cent.

The report pointed to initiatives in China aimed at promoting consumer confidence and spending that, if successful, could “see more robust advertising growth as local and multinational advertisers look to capitalise on pent-up demand”.